Kwara APC Accused of Using Dormant Foreign Website to Manufacture 63% Lead in Controversial Poll – KTAI

Kwara Transparency and Accountability Initiatives did not just question the poll. It went to the source. And what it found at  nunorthstar.com has turned a political propaganda into a national embarrassment for the Kwara APC.

Exhibit A: Their Own Website Says They Are Not Researchers – They Are Campaign Hired Guns

When KTAI opened nunorthstar.com at 8:37 AM on November 2nd, the fraud became self-evident. This is what the website says on its homepage, verbatim:

“Our Story: Many candidates and campaign strategists ask themselves this question: How can we give our campaign an edge over the competition? We asked that question too. So we came together to solve that problem. We believe a campaign’s ability to target its outreach at particular individuals and aggregate similar audiences into clusters is a game changer. We are a team of data analysts and political campaign strategists who will help your campaign to understand: what has happened, what is happening, what will happen and how things can be changed?”

And under approach:

“Our approach includes: Data mining, Social Listening Analytics, Media Sentiment, Polling and Advanced Predictive Analytics”

And the proprietary framework asks:

“What has happened? What is it we know about your voters that the opposition doesn’t know? What is happening? What is that breakthrough insight that significantly moves the needle for our campaign? What will happen? How do we profile the voters that this insight resonates with deeply, aggregate similar audiences (look alike audiences) and predict voters who might also resonate with the key insight? How can things be changed? How do we effectively deliver targeted messaging to these lookalike audiences?”

Analysis: This is not the language of an independent, non-partisan research institute like NOI Polls or SBM. This is the language of a partisan campaign vendor whose job is to help a campaign win. An independent pollster does not ask “how can things be changed for our campaign?” It reports data as it is. A vendor changes things for its client.

KTAI notes: “They openly tell you they help you target voters and deliver targeted messaging to lookalike audiences. That is political marketing, not independent polling. The APC hired its own marketing contractor to give itself a good score. It’s like hiring your own tailor to measure you and then announcing to the world that you are the tallest man in town.”

Exhibit B: A Ghost Company – No Address, No Phone, No Team, No History

A second screenshot from the “Get Started” page of nunorthstar.com shows a blank contact form asking for First name, Last name, Email, and Message, with a checkbox granting permission to email you.

There is no Nigerian office address. No phone number. No list of directors or researchers. No physical presence. No CAC number. No past clients. No archive of previous polls.

Even Meta AI’s own verification system, as seen in a screenshot from this same conversation at 8:26 AM, confirmed:

“I checked again for ‘NU Northstar Research’ – there is no public record of a company with that exact name. Search results only show: NorthStar Research Partners (Canada), NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes (USA), NorthStar Research Solutions (USA). None of them list an Ebuka Iloh or a ‘NU Northstar Research’ in Nigeria.”

KTAI said this proves the website has been dormant for over 3 years, last updated when such campaign micro-targeting firms mushroomed in the US after the Trump campaign, and has now been dusted up and rented by Kwara APC.

Exhibit C: The 30,000 Ghost Interviews That No One In Kwara Saw

The poll claims interviews with 30,000 registered voters across 193 wards between September 2 and October 20.

KTAI deployed monitors to 23 wards across Offa, Oyun, Irepodun, Ifelodun, Isin, Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Patigi, and  other LG

Finding: Zero awareness.

“No district head, no ward chairman, no market leader, no INEC observer, no journalist in Kwara heard of a team moving around with questionnaires for 48 days. To do 30,000 interviews in that period, you need to interview 625 people per day, every day, including Sundays, across riverine areas of Patigi and forests of Kaiama. Where are the field pictures? Where are the GPS coordinates? Where are the call logs? Nothing,” KTAI said.

They described the figure as “Amala Joint Statistics” – numbers cooked in Enugu and served to Kwarans as research.

Exhibit D: The Money Trail And The Media Plan

KTAI’s report alleges the poll is part of a multi-million naira image laundering project.

According to sources inside the APC structure who spoke to KTAI, the three senatorial campaign directorates were levied to raise millions of naira for “perception management” after the APC suffered massive defections to PDP in Kwara South.

“The brief was: Remodel our candidates. The PDP has emptied us. Show that we are still leading. The plan is to first push it on WhatsApp, Facebook and other social media pages then pay for national TV discussion. The same fake agency that claims to do polling is the one whose website says it helps campaigns with media sentiment,” KTAI said.

The group also alleged that part of the funds is meant to induce traditional and religious leaders to echo the fake lead.

Exhibit E: The Numbers Themselves Are An Insult

KTAI then took apart the percentages:

1. Kwara Central Governorship – 51% vs 46%: “This is home of Engr. Bolakale Kawu. In Oja Oba, Baboko, Agaka today, 80 out of 100 households openly support PDP’s Kale Kawu and his message of technocratic governance with human face. To claim he is losing at home is fiction.”

2. Kwara Central Senate – Governor vs Turaki 62% vs 33%: “Senator Saliu Mustapha, Turaki of Ilorin, is the most visible Senator in Kwara history. His projects, his accessibility, his respect for the Emirate is unmatched. Governor AbdulRahman is struggling to defend his tenure. No poll on earth can put the Governor 29 points ahead. This alone exposes the partisan script.”

3. Kwara South Senate – Adewoye 60% vs Popoola 36%: “Kwara South is where APC has collapsed. Over 5,000 APC members have decamped to PDP under Hon. Saheed Popoola in Igosun, Osi, Olla in the last 3 weeks. The APC Elders Caucus Chairman Chief J.B. Ayeni and former Senator Ajibola led the defection. Adewoye was rejected even in his ward. Yet a dormant website says he is leading? Laughable.”

KTAI concluded that Kwara South has the highest undecided (43%) not because people are undecided, but because many former APC members are in transition to PDP.

What Should Happen Next

KTAI has called on the NBC, the Nigerian Media Council, and all national TVs to demand from NU Northstar: Full methodology, raw data set, list of field officers, CAC certificate, and evidence of INEC observer accreditation before airing the poll.

It also called on Kwarans to disregard the poll and judge by what they see in their wards, not by a phantom website that says “We will help your campaign understand what has happened, what is happening, what will happen and how things can be changed.”