The Fractured North – How Atiku, El-Rufai, Kwankwaso, and the CPC Bloc Are Redrawing Nigeria’s Power Map and Why the Middle Belt May Rise Next
The Fractured North – How Atiku, El-Rufai, Kwankwaso, and the CPC Bloc Are Redrawing Nigeria’s Power Map and Why the Middle Belt May Rise Next
For decades, Northern Nigeria, collectively known as Arewa, was the country’s most disciplined and united political bloc, dictating national outcomes through strategic coordination and sheer numerical strength. But as the 2027 elections draw nearer, the once-mighty Arewa front is fracturing under the weight of competing ambitions and divergent ideologies. The old consensus that once bound Sokoto to Maiduguri, and Kano to Kaduna, now appears broken. In its place lies a complex three-way struggle between the Atiku–El-Rufai axis, the Kwankwasiyya movement, and remnants of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) loyal to Muhammadu Buhari’s legacy.
The Atiku–El-Rufai alliance, though still fluid, is arguably the most intriguing. Their recent two joint visits to former now late President Muhammadu Buhari’s residence in Daura, alongside a delegation of northern heavyweights, was officially presented as a religious courtesy. Yet, political observers saw in it the quiet stirrings of a coalition revival, one aimed at reclaiming the northern narrative from the ruling party’s establishment. Buhari’s refusal to publicly endorse their meeting was telling, his silence spoke louder than any statement, reflecting both the uncertainty and the fragmentation that now define northern politics.
Meanwhile, standing defiantly outside both PDP and APC power structures is Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the “rebel with a red cap.” Through his New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Kwankwaso has cultivated a populist, youth-driven movement anchored in Kano and parts of the Northwest. His disdain for political dependence has earned him both admiration and isolation. While he briefly flirted with reconciling with the APC, his ideological independence and refusal to be co-opted have positioned him as a voice of protest against the complacency of northern elites. To many disenchanted young northerners, Kwankwaso represents both authenticity and rebellion, a northern pro-masses who speaks their language.
Then comes the CPC bloc, once Buhari’s core loyalists, now scattered across positions of influence but united by sentimentality for their former leader’s populist aura. Figures like Nuhu Ribadu, Abdullahi Ganduje, Tanko Al-Makura, and Bello Matawalle still wield bureaucratic and political power, yet they struggle to define a common post-Buhari identity. While they remain the “ghost faction” of the APC, their quiet influence could prove decisive in swinging the northern vote. However, their greatest challenge lies in translating loyalty to a now late Buhari influence into political relevance in a post-Buhari era where personality cults are fading.
Beyond these internal fractures lies a larger geopolitical recalibration. The Middle Belt, long treated as the North’s appendage, is fast emerging as a political bloc of its own. With its growing cosmopolitan electorate, religious diversity, and expanding youth participation, the region is redefining itself not as “northern,” but as “central.” Its voters, less bound by old ethno-religious loyalties, are increasingly issue-driven. As Arewa grapples with identity crises, the Middle Belt’s fluid alliances and strategic location could make it the true swing zone in 2027, capable of determining who occupies Aso Rock.
The lesson from this unfolding realignment is simple but profound. Northern dominance is no longer guaranteed, and unity is no longer automatic. The old Arewa formula of bloc voting and elite consensus has given way to fragmentation, personality politics, and regional awakening. Whether this evolution leads to a more competitive democracy or deeper instability will depend on how Nigeria’s northern leaders reconcile ambition with collective vision. One thing, however, is certain, 2027 will test not just the strength of Arewa’s political machinery, but the very idea of northern unity itself.
©️ Adebamiwa Olugbenga Michael
