INSIGHT: Four senate d£aths revive debate over cost, relevance of by-elections

INSIGHT: Four senate deaths revive debate over cost, relevance of by-elections

The deaths of four serving senators in less than three years of the 10th national assembly have reignited debate over the cost and practicality of Nigeria’s mandatory by-election system.

Since 2024, the senate has lost Ifeanyi Ubah, Okey Ezea, Godiya Akwashiki, and Barinada Mpigi, creating vacancies that require fresh elections under Nigeria’s constitutional framework.

Under sections 68 and 76(2) of the 1999 constitution (as amended), the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is required to conduct a by-election within 90 days whenever a legislative seat becomes vacant.

The constitutional requirement means constituencies cannot be left without representation for extended periods.

However, the growing number of vacancies has renewed concerns about the financial and administrative burden of conducting repeated mid-term elections.

INEC does not publicly break down the cost of individual bye-elections, but election management experts say even single-seat contests involve substantial expenditure on logistics, security deployment, ad hoc staff, ballot materials, and voter education.

With three senate vacancies still pending — as well as the Ondo south seat vacated by Jimoh Ibrahim following his appointment as Nigeria’s permanent representative to the United Nations — analysts say the cumulative cost of the required by-elections could run into billions of naira.

The debate has also revived questions about whether Nigeria should reform its constitutional framework to balance democratic legitimacy with cost-efficiency.

WHY BYE-ELECTIONS EXIST

The Nigerian senate
The death of four lawmakers has created vacancies in the senate
Sam Ogwuche, programme coordinator of the Centre for Legislative Engagement at Yiaga Africa, said the constitutional requirement for bye-elections is rooted in the principle of democratic representation.

He said the constitution provides several circumstances under which a legislator may vacate office, including death, resignation, defection from the sponsoring party, or recall by constituents.

 

“When any of these situations results in a vacancy, the constitutional framework provides a mechanism for filling the vacant seat,” Ogwuche said.

He said section 76(2) empowers INEC to conduct elections to fill vacancies in the house of representatives, while section 116(2) provides a similar mandate for state assemblies.

“The constitutional philosophy underpinning these provisions is the principle of direct representation,” he said.

“In a representative democracy such as Nigeria’s, elected officials derive their legitimacy from the electorate within their constituencies.”

 

Ogwuche said by-elections preserve the electoral mandate by allowing voters to choose a new representative rather than having one appointed by political parties or administrative authorities.

“By returning the decision to the voters, bye-elections reinforce the principle that political authority actually rests with the people,” he said.

He added that bye-elections also serve as a mechanism for political accountability.

“Because they occur mid-term, they can serve as a barometer of public opinion and a mechanism for democratic feedback,” he said.

THE TURNOUT QUESTION

Despite their democratic rationale, bye-elections often suffer from low voter turnout.

 

Ogwuche said turnout in such elections is typically far lower than in general elections.

He attributed the pattern to limited national attention, reduced voter enthusiasm, and the perception that the stakes are relatively low.

“Low turnout raises concerns about whether bye-election outcomes genuinely reflect the will of the broader electorate,” he said.

“If only a small fraction of registered voters participate, the winning candidate may secure office with the support of a narrow segment of the constituency.”

However, he said, low turnout does not automatically invalidate the democratic legitimacy of elections.

“As long as the electoral process is free, fair, and open to all eligible voters, the outcome is considered democratically valid,” he said.

Ogwuche added that by-elections remain essential for ensuring continuity of representation in legislative decision-making.

“Without by-elections, legislative seats might remain vacant for extended periods, leaving citizens without representation in lawmaking and oversight processes,” he said.

CALLS FOR REFORM

While defending the democratic importance of by-elections, experts say reforms could improve efficiency and reduce costs.

Ogwuche suggested introducing a constitutional time-threshold rule that would prevent by-elections from being conducted close to the end of a legislative term.

He said elections occurring within six to twelve months of a general election could be avoided because the replacement legislator would serve only briefly.

Another proposal is the consolidation of by-elections.

Under such a system, INEC could conduct by-elections on fixed periodic dates instead of organising a separate poll each time a vacancy occurs.

Samuel Folorunsho, executive director of Legis360 AI, said the principle of filling legislative seats through elections should remain intact but requires reform.

“Yes, but not in their current form,” he said.

“The principle that legislative seats must be filled by popular mandate is constitutionally and democratically non-negotiable under the 1999 Constitution.”

Folorunsho said the current system produces what he described as “perverse outcomes”.

“This model produces fiscal waste, temporal disenfranchisement of constituencies, and systematic exploitation by political parties in low-visibility contests,” he said.

He proposed fixing two national windows each year for by-elections so that multiple vacancies could be conducted together.

“Instead of scrambling to hold a one-off election every time a seat falls vacant, Nigeria should fix two dates per year as by-election windows,” he said.

“All vacant seats get batched into the next window.”

Folorunsho said the approach could reduce election costs by as much as 40 to 60 percent.

He also proposed allowing temporary replacements when vacancies occur close to the end of a legislative term.

“If a seat falls vacant with less than 12 months left before a general election, it makes no sense to spend billions of naira on a short-lived election,” he said.

Despite the growing debate, Nigeria’s constitutional framework leaves little room for administrative shortcuts.

Under section 76(2) of the constitution, vacancies in the national assembly must be filled through elections.

Legal experts say any attempt to replace the system with alternatives — such as appointing party nominees or allowing primary election runners-up to inherit seats — would require a constitutional amendment.

For now, the principle remains clear.

Each vacant senate seat must be filled through a new electoral mandate.

But with rising costs and recurring vacancies, the conversation about reforming Nigeria’s by-election system is unlikely to fade anytime soon.