Nigeria records first month-on-month food deflation in over 13 years
Nigeria records first month-on-month food deflation in over 13 years
Nigeria witnessed a historic shift in its inflation dynamics in September 2025, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported the country’s first month-on-month food deflation in over 13 years.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, headline inflation dropped sharply to 18.02%, down from 20.12% recorded in August 2025, marking one of the steepest monthly declines in recent memory.
The major driver behind this decline was the food inflation component, which moderated to 16.87% in September, compared to 21.87% in August. Even more notable was the month-on-month food inflation rate, which printed at -1.57%, signaling an actual fall in food prices during the month. This is the first negative monthly reading since February 2012, when food inflation stood at -0.13%.
While the headline decline reflects a combination of factors, the most significant contributors include seasonal trends in food prices, statistical base effects, and the recent rebasing of the inflation basket by the NBS.
The harvest season across major agricultural regions has helped boost food supply, particularly for staples such as maize, yam, rice, and vegetables, which typically exert downward pressure on prices around this time of the year.
At the same time, the rebasing of the inflation basket, which involves updating the goods and services used to calculate inflation to better reflect current consumption patterns, has helped adjust price weightings across categories. This technical adjustment, combined with a high comparative base from the previous year, further accentuated the apparent slowdown in inflation.
